On Thermonuclear War by Herman Kahn

Author:Herman Kahn [Kahn, Herman]
Language: eng
Format: mobi, epub
Publisher: Transaction Publishers
Published: 0101-01-01T00:00:00+00:00

The next question asked in Table 52 is, Do we believe the answers? This question is, of course, highly relevant. Even conventional scientific and engineering analyses are much more uncertain than most laymen realize. In this subject, which is more of an art than a science, it is quite clear that most of our studies and conclusions must be taken tentatively.

For example, I hope that the first lecture is an example of a reasonably good study. The finding that if a nation such as the United States or Russia makes very moderate preparations it can survive a “small” war was made quite plausible, I think. It is not really unreasonable on the basis of our study to conjecture that if either of these nations made elaborate preparations they could survive and rebuild after an extremely “large” war. However, I think it must also have been clear to the reader as he went through the material that, even if one accepts the idea of quality and reliability in our work, there remain many uncertainties. It would be difficult for a policy maker to rely on our study if it came to a decision of war or peace. (He may have to if he does not have any better analyses, but where he can he will usually act “conservatively,” where “conservatively” can mean inertly—which is not in all cases the conservative thing to do.)

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